Commissioned by ITWeb/Brainstorm of South Africa for May 2010 issue.

While the economic crisis at the end of the first decade of the 21st century has made the most headlines, there are more significant shifts afoot that will inform the future of business.

The years 2000 through 2009 represented not only a decade, but the end of a generation in technology.

In 1957, the Russians put the first satellite in orbit. In 1969, the first man walked on the moon, and the internet officially went online. Now, these technologies have converged in innovative ways and opened doors to average people around the world. People can use services like Google Earth to see and pull up information on physical locations around the world, combining satellite and internet technology.

In many ways, the first decade of the 21st century was also a transition decade. The transition, which is still underfoot, will fundamentally change both our economic and business environments.

Politically, the last decade started with the stalwart, unipolar power of the United States. It ended with an emerging configuration of multipolar power, inclusive of emerging nations. It has spilled over into the co-ordination of global economic policy changing from the G8 nations to the G20 nations, including South Africa.

Aligned with these political shifts are the dynamics of global demographics, which are setting the stage for the major consumer markets of the next 40 years. These markets are shifting to emerging regions like Asia and Africa due to fast population growth. While consumer demand should continue to rise globally, it will increase the fastest in Asia and Africa. In fact, the International Monetary Fund says that emerging consumer markets will serve as the new growth engine for the global economy.

This equation holds true in technology as well. The International Data Corporation’s “Economic Impact of IT” study says that emerging markets represented 21 percent of IT spending in 2009, but through 2013 will represent 50 percent of net new growth in IT spending.

Technology also serves as a catalyst for economies and an enabler of business. Each ten percent increase in broadband connections results in 1.3 percent economic growth, according to the World Bank.

A New Impetus

While these notes serve as a backdrop to the transition in the last decade, they do not reveal the real story of how technology is fundamentally influencing our economic and business environment.

John Hagel and John Seely Brown, authors of The Only Sustainable Edge: Why Business Strategy Depends on Productive Friction and Dynamic Specialization, theorise that the business environment is transforming from push to pull models for mobilising resources. Essentially, instead of organising resources in anticipation of needs, resources are positioned when needed. For example, cloud computing allows digital infrastructure to be used and scaled when needed. Pull models are more conducive to the chaotic and turbulent environments in which we live today, allowing for greater agility. The shift from a push to pull paradigm has been occurring for decades. It seems more apparent now, however.

According to the Shift Index 2009, by Deloitte, there are three key waves (The Big Shift) impacting our business environment. The first wave is the impact of an expanding digital infrastructure and public policy focusing on economic liberalisation. The second wave is the shift in knowledge, capital, and talent flows due to an expanding digital infrastructure. And the third wave is the impact created by the first two.

There is a ray of light for emerging nations and markets in The Big Shift. Thomas Friedman, in the book The Lexus and The Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, says that there will no longer be a First, Second, and Third World, but only the Fast World and Slow World. The Fast World is a wide-open society.

In The Big Shift, African economies do not need to catch up to industrialised nations, per se, because the open playing field creates space for them to innovate.

The growth of the mobile market in Africa in the past decade is a perfect example. If Africa had waited for fixed line deployment, it would still have been catching up, but instead it is leading global markets.

D for Democracy

The Fast World/Slow World paradigm is evolving due to the democratisation of technology, finance, and information, which started in the 1980s. Democratisation of technology encompasses the innovations that have allowed hundreds of millions of people to communicate, connect, and exchange information, money, etc. Democratisation of finance means people have the power and information to invest.

Democratisation of information means that people around the world have access to information. In essence, the power to shape economies and markets no longer rests in the hands of the few, but is open to the masses, or crowds, around the globe.

From a practical business perspective, these forces mean the way we do business now and in the future will change. There are several evolving models that took root in the past decade.

Crowdsourcing is any sort of outsourcing that involves a large group of people, usually the public, to actively contribute to a task or project. Wikipedia is a prime example of crowdsourcing. In a business context, Goldcorp, a Canadian mining company, outsourced the task of identifying gold deposits in a concession to the public in 2000. Through this process, Goldcorp was able to find deposits worth $3 billion.

In Africa, crowdsourcing is a model well suited to mobilising people around development, political, or business projects. First National Bank (FNB) used crowdsourcing to solicit a business idea that would draw its wealthy customers to online banking in 2008. The selected idea garnered $2 500 for winner, Guillaume Martin.

Another operational model is crowdfunding. Crowdfunding is crowdsourcing applied to raising funds. Osterwalder Alexander and Pigneur Yves, authors of Business Model Generation, used a combination of crowdsourcing and crowdfunding to write and fund the book. The public was invited to serve as co-writers and investors at the same time. As people joined the project, they paid a fee that got them a copy of the book when released, allowed them to provide input as the book was developed, and get a royalty as the book was sold.

Locally, Eve Dmochowska has started a crowdfunding project for South African start-ups, which generated nearly R1 million in investments within its first few weeks of opening.

In another instance, digital democratisation and the cost of technology, e.g., internet bandwidth, reaching almost a “virtually” free state in the West, catalysed the “freemium” business model.

Chris Anderson, Editor-in- Chief of Wired Magazine, coined the phrase in his book, Free: The Future of a Radical Price. Freemium is where basic services are offered for free, while a premium is charged for special features. A typical application is magazines or newspapers that offer some online content free but the majority for paid subscribers only. Anderson expects, “freemium to cross over into other industries as part of a new industrial revolution”.

New Horizons

Will Africa win or lose in this new business context? It has the same opportunity as any other region to move in the new business dynamics, and it has several things going for it. Mobile and internet infrastructure development has gained momentum in the past decade, but there is still a lot to do. The continent has one of the world’s largest consumer markets and ample human capital, both of which are underdeveloped. And, of course, Africa has an abundance of resources.

The question is, will Africa leapfrog, as a whole, like it did with the mobile market? The next two to three years will see whether it rises to the challenge or falls behind the occasion presented in this decade.